In 2024, MTN Nigeria was in intensive care. The company reported a loss after tax of over ₦400 billion . The Naira devaluation had crushed them, with net foreign exchange losses hitting a staggering ₦887.7 billion in just the first half of 2024 alone .
Fast forward to 2025, and the story couldn't be more different.
In the first half of 2025, MTN Nigeria recorded a net income of ₦414.9 billion - a 180% turnaround from the loss position the year before . Revenue jumped to ₦2.38 trillion, a 54% increase .
What changed? Three things: First, the Naira stabilised. Their FX losses collapsed from ₦887.7 billion in H1 2024 to just ₦5.2 billion in H1 2025 . That's a 99% reduction. In fact, in the second quarter of 2025, they actually recorded a small FX gain .
Second, they raised prices. MTN implemented tariff adjustments in early 2025, and customers kept using their services. Data revenue surged by 85% in Q2 2025 to almost ₦700 billion . For the first time, data revenue now contributes more than half of total revenue—voice has taken a back seat .
Third, they kept expenses under control. While revenue grew 54%, total expenses rose only 19%, allowing operating profit to surge by 193% .
By June 2025, the company had recorded three consecutive quarters of profit . The negative shareholders' funds improved dramatically, from -₦458 billion at the start of the year to -₦42.5 billion . They're not out of the woods yet on that front, but the direction is clear.
💼 The Mastercard Fintech Deal
One of MTN's most important strategic moves is happening behind the scenes. MTN Group is restructuring its fintech businesses in Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda to bring in Mastercard as a minority investor .
The deal, valued at about $5.2 billion for the entire fintech business, would see Mastercard acquire a minority stake. This is part of MTN's broader strategy to unlock value from its fast-growing financial services operations.
But here's the catch: Nigeria is proving complicated. While Ghana and Uganda are progressing smoothly, MTN's CEO Ralph Mupita admitted that Nigeria has "more complexity with some more regulatory processes to work through" . The deal was expected to finalise in the first half of 2025, but as of early 2026, we're still waiting.
For Nigerian investors, this matters because a successful fintech spin-off could unlock significant value in MTN Nigeria's share price. Mobile money is a huge growth opportunity, and having Mastercard as a strategic partner would validate that business.
🏗️ The IHS Towers Acquisition: A Game-Changer
Now this is the big one. On February 19, 2026, MTN Group announced it was acquiring IHS Towers in a $6.2 billion deal .
To understand why this matters, you need to know some history. About two decades ago, telecom companies across Africa decided to sell their tower infrastructure to independent companies. The idea was to reduce capital expenditure—let someone else own the towers, and you just lease space on them. IHS became one of the biggest players, and MTN was their largest customer, accounting for about 65% of IHS's revenue .
Now MTN is reversing that strategy. They're buying back the towers—about 29,000 of them across Africa .
Why? Two reasons:
First, dollar exposure. When MTN leases towers from IHS, those lease payments are often linked to the dollar. Remember what the Naira devaluation did to MTN's profits? Exactly. By owning the towers, MTN eliminates that dollar-denominated lease expense and brings it into local currency .
Second, control. To roll out 4G and 5G networks, you need control over your infrastructure. When you lease, you're at the mercy of the tower company's upgrade schedule. When you own, you decide when and where to deploy new technology .
The deal could increase MTN's cash flow by eliminating recurring lease expenses. But there's a short-term risk—if MTN finances this with debt, leverage could become a concern .
For Airtel, which accounts for about 15% of IHS's revenue, this deal creates an interesting situation . Will they continue leasing from a competitor-owned tower company? Or will they accelerate their own infrastructure investments? The tower-sharing model that served the industry for two decades is now being questioned.
📈 The Stock Price Journey: From ₦200 to ₦780
Now let's look at what the market has done with all this information.
At the start of 2025, MTN Nigeria's share price was around ₦200 . By late July 2025, it had climbed to ₦471.10 - a 136% return in just seven months . This rally pushed MTN past Airtel to become the most valuable listed company on the Nigerian Exchange .
The momentum didn't stop there. When the IHS Towers acquisition was announced in February 2026, the stock hit an all-time high of ₦780 per share . At that price, MTN Nigeria's market capitalisation stood at over ₦16 trillion .
Let me put that in perspective:
- Low point (early 2025): Around ₦200
- Mid-2025: ₦471
- February 2026 (post-IHS deal): ₦780
That's a 290% gain from the low to the peak. If you had invested ₦1 million at the bottom, you'd be sitting on almost ₦4 million today.
⚠️ The Catch: No Dividends (Yet)
Here's the reality check. Despite this incredible share price performance, MTN Nigeria is not paying dividends .
Why? Because they still have accumulated losses on their books. The company's net assets were negative ₦458 billion at the start of 2025, and while they've improved to negative ₦42.5 billion by June, they're still in the red . You can't pay dividends when your shareholder funds are negative.
The company has been clear: they need to resolve this negative equity position and return to sustained profitability before dividends resume.
Now let's look at MTN's main competitor - Airtel Africa - The Quiet Performer
Airtel Africa is a different beast - it's listed in London, not Lagos, but its operations are right here in Nigeria.
Airtel Africa's half-year results for 2025 show a company firing on all cylinders:
- Revenue: $2.98 billion, up 24.5% in constant currency
- EBITDA: $1.45 billion, with margins expanding to 48.5%
- Profit after tax: $376 million, up from just $79 million the year before
- Data revenue: $1.16 billion, now the biggest component of revenue, surpassing voice
Notice something interesting? Airtel's EBITDA margin of 48.5% is higher than MTN's (which was around 45% in recent periods) .
Airtel has also been smart about managing currency risk. About 95% of their operating company debt is now in local currency, up from 89% a year ago . This protects them from future Naira shocks.
📱 Airtel Money: The Fintech Powerhouse
Airtel's fintech business is growing like crazy:
- Customer base: Nearly 50 million, up 20%
- Annualised transaction value: Approaching $200 billion, up 35.9%
And here's the kicker: Airtel is preparing to list its mobile money business via an IPO in the first half of 2026 . This could be a massive value unlock for shareholders.
Think about it. When Safaricom spun off part of its M-Pesa business in Kenya, it created enormous value. Airtel is trying to do the same thing. An IPO would give the market a pure-play fintech investment opportunity in Africa, and Airtel shareholders would benefit from the value creation.
💰 Returning Cash to Shareholders
While MTN isn't paying dividends, Airtel is doing something different:
- Interim dividend: 2.84 cents per share, up 9.2%
- Share buyback programme: $100 million underway, with shares being repurchased at an average price of around 163p
- Progressive dividend policy: They're committed to increasing payouts over time
This matters. A company that returns cash to shareholders is signalling confidence in its future cash flows. It's also a different philosophy from MTN, which is reinvesting everything into growth and balance sheet repair.
Next, lets do The Head-to-Head Comparison - MTN vs Airtel
A side-by-side comparison of where these two telecom giants stand.
📈 Financial Performance
| Metric | MTN Nigeria (H1 2025) | Airtel Africa (H1 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₦2.38 trillion | $2.98 billion (₦4.5 trillion) |
| Revenue Growth | 54% YoY | 24.5% constant currency |
| Profit After Tax | ₦414.9 billion | $376 million (₦570 billion) |
| EBITDA Margin | 45% | 48.5% |
| FX Impact | Massive reduction in losses | Active local currency debt strategy |
Airtel is larger in revenue terms when you convert to Naira, and their margins are stronger. But MTN is growing faster right now, coming off a lower base.
🏢 Strategic Direction
| Aspect | MTN Nigeria | Airtel Africa |
|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure | Buying IHS Towers (vertical integration) | Continuing tower leasing model (for now) |
| Fintech | Restructuring for Mastercard investment | Preparing for IPO in H1 2026 |
| Capital Allocation | Reinvesting in growth, repairing balance sheet | Dividends + share buybacks |
| Ownership Structure | MTN Group reducing stake to 65% via public offer | London-listed, widely held |
MTN is taking the "control" route—own your infrastructure, control your destiny. Airtel is taking the "efficiency" route—return cash to shareholders while growing fintech separately.
📊 Stock Performance
| Metric | MTN Nigeria | Airtel Africa |
|---|---|---|
| Share Price (Feb 2026) | ₦780 | 350p (London) |
| Year-to-Date 2025 Return | +136% (by July) | Not directly comparable |
| 52-Week High | ₦780 (record) | 360p |
| Market Cap | ₦16.4 trillion | £13 billion (₦15.6 trillion) |
Interestingly, MTN Nigeria's market cap has now overtaken Airtel Africa's entire market cap, despite Airtel having larger revenues . This suggests the market is pricing MTN's future growth potential more aggressively.
⚖️ Risks to Watch
MTN Nigeria:
- Still has negative shareholders' funds (though improving)
- No dividends in sight
- Regulatory hurdles for fintech restructuring
- Debt from IHS acquisition could pressure balance sheet
Airtel Africa:
- Still exposed to currency volatility (though hedged better)
- Fintech IPO execution risk
- Potential strategic disadvantage if tower-sharing model becomes less favourable
🧠 What This Means for Investors
Here's my plain-language take on what these numbers mean for you.
For MTN Nigeria Investors
If you own MTN shares: Congratulations, you've ridden an incredible wave. The stock has nearly tripled from its lows. The question now is whether the best gains are behind you.
The IHS deal is a long-term positive—it removes dollar risk and gives MTN control over its network destiny. But it also introduces execution risk. Will they overpay? Will debt become a problem? The market is betting "no" for now.
The fintech restructuring with Mastercard could be another catalyst, but it's taking longer than expected due to Nigerian regulations.
The biggest missing piece is dividends. If you need income from your investments, MTN isn't your stock right now. You're betting on capital appreciation only.
If you're considering buying: You're buying at all-time highs. That requires conviction. The valuation is no longer cheap; the market has already priced in the turnaround and the IHS deal. You need to believe that MTN can continue growing earnings at a strong pace to justify today's price.
For Airtel Africa Investors
If you own Airtel shares: You own a well-run machine. Strong margins, growing fintech business, returning cash to shareholders, and an upcoming fintech IPO that could unlock value. The dividend and buyback programme means you're getting paid to wait.
If you're considering buying: Airtel feels like the more "boring" choice - steady, profitable, shareholder-friendly. But boring often wins the race. The fintech IPO in 2026 could be a significant catalyst, and the current valuation doesn't seem stretched compared to MTN's.
So, Which One Is Better?
It depends on what kind of investor you are.
Choose MTN if: You're an aggressive growth investor who believes in the control strategy. You're willing to accept higher risk (no dividends, negative equity, execution risk on IHS deal) for the potential of higher returns. You think MTN's turnaround still has room to run.
Choose Airtel if: You're a more conservative investor who values current cash returns and steady execution. You like the fintech IPO catalyst but want the safety of a company that's already profitable, paying dividends, and managing currency risk proactively. You're willing to accept potentially lower upside for a smoother ride.
The honest truth? Both are good companies. MTN is the comeback story with more volatility. Airtel is the steady compounder with better capital returns. In a diversified portfolio, owning both wouldn't be crazy.
📝 The Bottom Line
MTN Nigeria has staged one of the most impressive turnarounds in Nigerian corporate history. From a ₦400 billion loss in 2024 to record profits and an all-time high share price in 2026, the recovery has been nothing short of remarkable. The IHS Towers acquisition signals a strategic shift that could pay dividends (literally and figuratively) for years to come.
Airtel Africa, meanwhile, has quietly built a stronger margin business, protected itself from currency risk, and is now returning cash to shareholders while preparing a fintech IPO that could be the next big catalyst.
The stock market has favoured MTN's story, its market cap now exceeds Airtel's despite smaller revenues. That tells you something about growth expectations.
As always, do your own homework. These are complex businesses operating in a challenging macroeconomic environment. The Naira will move again, regulation will change, competition will intensify. But for now, both companies have emerged from the storm in much better shape than anyone expected two years ago.