On November 11, 2025, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) didn’t just dip; it shivered. We saw the single biggest selloff in a day. This happened because the “Big Money” was running for the exits, trying to calculate how much of their hard-earned profit the government was about to snatch through the new Capital Gains Tax.
It took weeks for the market to recover. It took “clarifications” from Taiwo Oyedele’s committee to stop the bleeding. But here is the truth: A market that moves based on a consultant’s “clarification” rather than clear, stable law is a market built on sand.
Mr. Oyedele has been on a media blitz, smiling and telling us that 99% of Nigerians are excluded from these taxes. On the surface, that sounds fair. But in the world of finance, this is what we call “Form over Substance.”
The stock market works on the Pareto Principle (The 80/20 Rule).
In any economy, it is the 1% - the pension funds, the institutional investors, and the high-net-worth individuals - who provide 80% of the liquidity. They are the “engine” of the bus.
- Oyedele’s Logic: “Don’t worry, 99% of the passengers don’t have to pay for the engine’s fuel!”
- The Reality: If the engine (the 1% of investors) stops running because the fuel is too expensive (high taxes), the bus doesn’t move. The 99% of passengers stay stranded at the Bus stop.
The NGX has seen record highs lately, but let’s be honest: that growth was driven by structural changes and temporary factors that are now “thinning out.” To keep growing, the market needs a new catalyst.
Instead, the Tax Committee has given us a threat. Here is why CGT kills growth in simple terms:
- The “Penalty” on Success: Imagine you buy shares in a local company for ₦100. After years of risk, they become worth ₦200. The government now wants a huge chunk of that ₦100 gain. This discourages people from investing long-term.
- The Exit Tax: When a big investor knows they will be taxed heavily upon leaving, they simply don’t enter. They take their Dollars and Pounds to markets like Ghana, Kenya, or Mauritius, where the “entry and exit” are smoother.
- The Passing of the Burden: Taiwo Oyedele deliberately ignores a basic fact: when you tax the “Rich” (like Dangote or big banks), they don’t just soak up the cost. They pass it down. If a big investor’s profit is cut by tax, they demand higher returns, which raises the cost of capital for businesses. This leads to higher prices for cement, sugar, and flour.
The fact that Mr. Oyedele often points to his decades of experience at top-tier firms to deflect criticism Shows that he is being cynical. But no amount of “private sector experience” changes the fact that taxing capital in a developing economy is like eating your seed corn.
>>The “Oyedele” Narrative : “99% of Nigerians are safe.” > The Market Reality: The 1% who provide the cash are fleeing, leaving the 99% with a stagnant market.
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The “Oyedele” Narrative : “The tax is for the rich.” > The Market Reality: The rich pass the cost to the poor through higher prices and lower job creation.
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The “Oyedele” Narrative : “It simplifies the system.” > The Market Reality: The November 11 selloff proves the system is confusing and volatile.
What makes this even more alarming is the secrecy. We are hearing reports of “insertions” made into the law after the National Assembly had already looked at it. If these taxes were smuggled in, we aren’t just looking at bad policy, we are looking at legislative forgery.
How can we trust a “top consultant” who oversees a process where the law changes between the Parliament and the Printer? When Mr. Oyedele says “it’s a typo,” he is asking us to ignore the fact that these “typos” always seem to favor the government’s ability to grab more money from the people.
The NGX needs a base to grow from. It needs stability. By pushing a Capital Gains Tax that scares off the “Big Money,” Taiwo Oyedele is effectively cutting the fuel line to the Nigerian engine. He may be a “top consultant,” but right now, his policies are doing the work of an economic saboteur.
The Nigerian people deserve more than a CV; we deserve a tax system that doesn’t punish growth.