Since the All Progressives Congress (APC) took power in Nigeria in 2015, the country’s economic trajectory has been characterized by persistent decline, stagnation, and worsening socio-economic conditions, despite initial hopes for reform and revival. This downturn can be understood through several interwoven dynamics involving domestic policy failures, external pressures, and profound impacts on the populace’s welfare and opportunities.
When the APC came into power on the promise of “change,” Nigeria was Africa’s fastest-growing economy with GDP growth averaging over 6%, relatively low unemployment, and manageable inflation. Within Buhari’s tenure (2015 - 2023), however, Nigeria plunged into two recessions, and the GDP growth rate collapsed to near zero, while inflation soared, unemployment reached historic highs, and poverty deepened, with over 130 million Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty. The economy, which once had export earnings near $98 billion in 2013 and a GDP of about $568 billion, shrank and stagnated. Notably, GDP per capita fell by 38% during Buhari’s administration, evidencing deteriorating average living standards.
Tinubu’s presidency starting in 2023 did little to alleviate these conditions; in fact, it intensified hardships by adopting IMF-style austerity measures. Fuel subsidies were removed, causing prices to quadruple, and the naira was floated, leading to severe currency instability. Consequently, inflation surged above 40%, triggering a deep cost-of-living crisis. While these measures garnered praise internationally, they severely eroded the purchasing power and living conditions for many Nigerians.
Despite the severe economic hardship faced by ordinary Nigerians, the government has frequently been criticized for frivolous spending. Instances of this include the purchase of a new presidential jet and luxurious yachts, drawing public outcry when essential services are underfunded. For example, in 2023, reports surfaced about the acquisition of a presidential yacht worth billions of naira amidst a struggling economy, sparking outrage among citizens.
Furthermore, there have been concerns over over-bloated entourages to international events, with large delegations incurring significant expenses that seem disproportionate to the tangible benefits. Significant funds have also been allocated to the renovation of irrelevant buildings, such as the Vice President’s official residence and the International Conference Centre (ICC), while critical sectors like education, healthcare, and infrastructure suffer from chronic underinvestment. This stark contrast between lavish government spending and the neglect of human capital development and job creation highlights a significant disconnect between the ruling class and the realities faced by the populace.
Nigeria’s economic woes are also tied to long-standing structural challenges and external factors. The country remains heavily dependent on oil exports and revenue, leaving it vulnerable to global oil price shocks and external geopolitical dynamics. According to research, external shocks and fiscal pressures constrained Nigeria’s ruling elites, leading to episodic reforms without fundamental industrial transformation. This resulted in selective growth (notably in telecommunications) but stagnation in core sectors like oil, with revenues leaking and reform efforts undermined by internal elite conflicts and rent-seeking.
The perceptions that foreign-backed policies and interests, often aligned with Western financial institutions and geopolitical agendas, have influenced Nigeria’s economic direction under the APC. For example, the removal of fuel subsidies and currency liberalization, typical of IMF prescriptions, have disproportionately impacted ordinary Nigerians while serving to appease international lenders and investors.
The consequences for Nigerians have been profound. The period has seen massive emigration (“brain drain”) as young professionals abandon hopes of careers and stability at home. A poignant example is the personal testimony of a pilot whose dreams were shattered after the collapse of Nigeria’s aviation sector under the APC’s era, leading him to seek opportunities abroad. Ordinary Nigerians face soaring food and fuel costs, stagnant wages, and insecure employment conditions. The poverty growth rate implies millions more fall into destitution yearly, despite Nigeria’s rich natural resources.
This economic environment has closed off opportunities for the vast majority of Nigerians, curtailing aspirations, entrepreneurship, and quality of life. The frustration has been compounded by perceptions of leadership arrogance, corruption, and failure to address foundational economic and governance issues, fueling disenchantment and anger among youth and civil society.
In summary, the APC decade has wrought a sustained economic contraction and social hardship, fueled by policy missteps, structural vulnerabilities to external shocks, and arguably an alignment with external interests that favor austerity over inclusive growth. The Nigerian people, especially youth, have paid a heavy price, losing crucial years of prosperity and opportunity. The country’s experience underscores the urgent need for economic diversification, effective governance, and policies that prioritize human development over neoliberal orthodoxy.