Since the All Progressives Congress (APC) assumed power in Nigeria in 2015, the nation’s economic landscape has been marked by a steady decline, stagnation, and mounting socio-economic challenges, despite initial optimism for reform and renewal. This setback is the result of complex and intertwined factors, ranging from domestic policy shortfalls and external pressures to the far-reaching impact on the lives and prospects of the Nigerian people.
When the APC took the reins with promises of “change,” Nigeria stood as Africa’s fastest-growing economy. GDP growth averaged over 6%, unemployment was relatively contained, and inflation manageable. However, during President Buhari’s tenure (2015 - 2023), Nigeria endured two recessions; GDP growth plummeted to near zero, inflation and unemployment surged, and poverty deepened, with over 130 million living in multidimensional poverty. Export earnings, once about $98 billion in 2013, and a GDP near $568 billion, shrank and stagnated. Most tellingly, GDP per capita fell by 38% over Buhari’s administration, evidence of declining living standards.
President Tinubu’s term, beginning in 2023, has done little to palliate this hardship. Instead, austerity measures, removal of fuel subsidies, floating of the naira, drove prices up and led to currency instability. Inflation soared above 40%, pushing many deeper into a cost-of-living crisis. These policies, though praised by international observers, have severely undermined Nigerians’ purchasing power and quality of life.
Despite widespread hardship, government spending habits remain deeply controversial. Notable examples include the acquisition of expensive presidential jets and yachts, even as essential services are critically underfunded. In 2023, the widely criticized purchase of a presidential yacht costing billions of naira sparked outrage amid persistent economic woes. Reports of oversized delegations to international events and lavish renovations of official buildings, like the Vice President’s residence and the International Conference Centre, have heightened perceptions of misaligned priorities. Meanwhile, sectors central to long-term prosperity, education, healthcare, and infrastructure, languish from underinvestment. This stark imbalance underscores the gulf between Nigeria’s ruling class and everyday citizens.
Nigeria’s chronic economic turbulence is also rooted in enduring structural weaknesses and susceptibility to external shocks. Overreliance on oil exports leaves the nation exposed to fluctuating global prices and geopolitical twists. Research suggests these external pressures have prevented sustained industrial reform, fostering selective growth (e.g., in telecommunications) but stagnation in strategic sectors like oil. Revenue leaks, infighting among elites, and systemic rent-seeking have further eroded reform efforts.
Moreover, foreign-backed policies, aligned with Western financial institutions and geopolitical interests, have shaped Nigeria’s direction under the APC. The push to remove fuel subsidies and liberalize the currency reflects standard IMF recommendations, benefiting external actors but often worsening hardship for ordinary citizens.
The repercussions for Nigerians have been profound. There has been a sharp increase in “brain drain,” with young professionals abandoning hopes of building careers and enjoying stability at home. A vivid example is the pilot whose aspirations were dashed by the decline of Nigeria’s aviation industry, forcing him to seek opportunities overseas. Ordinary Nigerians contend daily with escalating food and fuel costs, stagnant incomes, and precarious jobs. Skyrocketing poverty rates mean millions join the ranks of the destitute each year, despite abundant natural resources.
This battered economic climate restricts opportunities, stunts entrepreneurship, and curtails the quality of life for most. Resentment is further fueled by perceptions of arrogance, corruption, and government inaction, feeding widespread frustration among youth and civil society.
The decade under APC governance has produced sustained economic and social contraction, driven by policy errors, structural frailties, and alignment with austerity measures that seldom deliver inclusive growth. The toll on the Nigerian people, especially the youth, has been severe, costing precious years of prosperity and potential. Nigeria’s experience highlights the pressing need for:
Economic diversification beyond oil
Effective and accountable governance
Policies focused on human development over external approval
This context justifies the pervasive anger and despair of many citizens, who see their futures sacrificed by domestic mismanagement and exacerbated by foreign interests. For recovery, Nigerian leadership must embrace growth-centric, people-oriented policies that offer real hope and tangible progress for all, rather than catering to a privileged few.
To deepen our understanding, further insights could be explored on the long-term impact of current economic trends, including:
Demographic Shifts and Talent Loss: How ongoing emigration of skilled youth affects innovation, productivity, and Nigeria’s future competitiveness.
Institutional Trust and Social Cohesion: The potential for persistent governance failures to erode social trust and intensify divisions.
Intergenerational Mobility: The ramifications on the ability of families to escape poverty and aspire to better livelihoods over time.
Investment and Diversification: Prospects for sectors outside oil—such as technology, agriculture, and services—to drive recovery and sustainable growth.
Regional and Global Influence: How Nigeria’s waning economic clout might reshape its role in African and global affairs.
These dimensions are crucial for mapping Nigeria’s trajectory and crafting policies that can reverse decline, unlock opportunity, and reimagine the future for the nation’s next generation.