When an aide to Governor Nasir Idris of Kebbi State stepped out to explain the governor’s vigorous mobilisation for President Bola Tinubu’s re‑election, the headlines were quick to quote the obvious: "federal benefits". Yet the story is richer than a simple quid‑pro‑quo. In this post I unpack the political calculus, the tangible projects that have landed in Kebbi, and the broader implications for the 2027 electoral landscape.
The aide’s main arguments
- Federal allocations have accelerated – The aide pointed to a surge in capital projects since Tinubu’s inauguration, noting that Kebbi has received over ₦12 billion in road, health and education contracts.
- Political alignment smooths implementation – When a state governor is on the same side as the president, ministries and agencies tend to move faster, reducing bureaucratic bottlenecks.
- Electoral reciprocity – Supporting Tinubu now could translate into a stronger bargaining chip for Kebbi in the 2027 presidential race, especially if the state seeks to influence the party’s ticket selection.
These points are not without contest. Critics argue that the governor’s overt support may alienate opposition voters in Kebbi, a state that historically swings between parties. Others caution that relying on federal largesse could undermine the development of locally‑sourced revenue streams.
Tangible federal projects in Kebbi
| Project | Approx. Value (₦) | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Zuru–Birnin Kebbi highway upgrade | 4.2 bn | Completed (2024) |
| Kebbi State University Teaching Hospital expansion | 3.5 bn | Ongoing (expected 2025) |
| Irrigation scheme for Argungu River basin | 2.1 bn | Phase 2 launched 2023 |
| Rural electrification of 120 villages | 1.8 bn | 70% complete |
| Solar mini‑grid pilot in Gwandu | 0.9 bn | Operational since 2022 |
The aide highlighted the Zuru–Birnin Kebbi highway as a flagship example: travel time between the two towns dropped by 40%, facilitating trade of agricultural produce, especially rice and millet. The teaching hospital expansion is expected to cut referral rates to Kano and Kaduna by half, a tangible health benefit for residents.
Political calculus behind the endorsement
From a strategic standpoint, aligning with Tinubu offers Governor Idris a seat at the federal table. In the Nigerian political tradition, "the pot that cooks for you also feeds your children" – a proverb that underscores the reciprocity expected in patron‑client relationships. By publicly backing Tinubu, Idris hopes to secure:
- Priority in federal budget allocations – States that vote in lockstep often receive early disbursements.
- Influence over ministerial appointments – Kebbi may lobby for a minister from the North‑West, ensuring its interests are voiced.
- Leverage in party primaries – The governor can rally delegates for a Kebbi‑born candidate or negotiate policy concessions.
However, the political risk is real. Tinubu’s presidency has been marred by allegations of corruption and economic challenges, notably the lingering effects of the 2022 currency devaluation. If the electorate perceives the governor’s support as blind loyalty rather than pragmatic governance, it could erode his popularity.
Voices from the opposition and civil society
Opposition leaders in Kebbi, notably from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), have warned that the governor’s alignment with Tinubu may “drown the voice of the grassroots”. They argue that federal projects should be merit‑based, not tied to political patronage. Civil society groups have also called for transparency on the contracts, urging the state assembly to audit the funds to ensure they reach intended beneficiaries.
On the other hand, some analysts see the governor’s move as a realistic response to the current political reality. Dr. Amina Yusuf, a political science professor at Ahmadu Bello University, notes: "In a winner‑takes‑all system, states that stay neutral often end up with nothing. Aligning early can safeguard development gains, provided the governor keeps a watchdog on the implementation."
Economic impact on the average Kebbi resident
The influx of federal projects has already shown measurable effects:
- Agricultural output – The irrigation scheme boosted rice yields by 25% in 2023, lifting smallholder incomes.
- Employment – Construction of the highway and hospital created over 5,000 temporary jobs, many of which were filled by local youths.
- Health outcomes – Preliminary data from the teaching hospital shows a 15% reduction in maternal mortality since the expansion began.
These gains, however, are uneven. Rural communities far from the highway still face poor road conditions, and critics say the distribution of contracts favours firms with political connections.
The broader national picture
Kebbi is not alone in this pattern. Several North‑West states – Zamfara, Sokoto and Katsina – have also publicly thrown their weight behind Tinubu, citing similar federal interventions. This clustering could reshape the balance of power within the All Progressives Congress (APC), potentially marginalising southern factions that feel overlooked.
Conversely, the opposition coalition (the "New Nigeria" alliance) is attempting to paint Tinubu’s re‑election as a centralised power grab, arguing that development should be driven by state governments rather than a single party’s patronage network.
Bottom line
Governor Idris’s aide offers a straightforward narrative: "We are backing Tinubu because the federal government is delivering for Kebbi." The data on projects and their immediate benefits lend credence to that claim. Yet the political trade‑off is delicate – loyalty may secure short‑term gains but could jeopardise long‑term credibility if the president’s tenure falters.
In your view, does the promise of federal projects justify a state governor’s open endorsement of a presidential incumbent, or should development be pursued independently of partisan allegiance?